📊 Forecast Evaluation
Transparency and accountability matter! This page tracks the accuracy of our weekend ski forecasts by comparing predictions against actual observed conditions.
Data is collected from SNOTEL stations, NWS observations, and resort reports. Evaluation helps improve future forecasts and builds trust with readers.
Season Statistics (2025-2026)
Total blogs written for the season
Total forecasts evaluated for all sites
Forecasts within predicted range
Average forecasted snowfall error
Statistics will be updated as we collect more forecast evaluation data throughout the season.
Recent Forecast Evaluation
Select a backcountry region to view detailed forecast evaluation for the most recent forecast period:
Seasonal Backcountry Region Performance
Select a region to view seasonal forecast evaluation statistics:
Methodology
Data Sources
- SNOTEL Stations: Automated snow and weather stations from NRCS
- NWS Observations: National Weather Service Radar Wind Profiler Snow Levels
- Resort Reports: Official snow reports from ski areas
Evaluation Process
- Forecast data is saved at time of posting (stored in data/forecasts/)
- After the forecast period, actual observations are collected
- Automated scripts compare forecast vs. actual values
- Evaluation reports are generated and posted here
Accuracy Metrics
- Within Range: Did actual fall within the forecast range?
- Mean Error: Forecast - Actual
- Mean Absolute Error (MAE): Average error across all forecasts
Why Evaluation Matters
Forecast evaluation serves multiple purposes:
- Accountability: Being transparent about makes us perfect
- Improvement: Identifying patterns in errors helps refine future forecasts
- Learning: Understanding which weather patterns are harder to forecast
- Comparison: See how different ski areas snow totals differ from each other
Paraphrasing George Box: "All forecasts are wrong, but some are useful!"